Responding to Pahalgam terror attack

• The Pahalgam terrorist attack in Jammu and Kashmir is a calculated political signal, causing strategic disruption and inflicting human casualties.

• The attack took place in Baisaran, an alpine meadow known as’mini-Switzerland’, a site of picnics, pony rides, and school excursions.

• The attack reflects a massive intelligence failure and a lowering of security vigil, which is troubling.

• The Resistance Front, a proxy outfit with clear operational links to the Lashkar-e-Taiba, is responsible for the attack.

• The pattern of operations inflicting pain on India, sowing uncertainty in Kashmir, and provoke reaction is familiar, with Pakistan’s operations often thriving in a strategic environment without paying a proportionate cost.

• To alter the calculus in Rawalpindi, India must develop institutional memory and policy continuity to respond across political administrations.

• A long-term approach to deterrence must involve political consensus, sustained intelligence capability, and diplomatic stamina to persist with pressure even in the absence of major attacks.

• India’s response to the Pahalgam massacre must be rooted in strategy, not just outrage, and deterrence.

• To alter perceptions of India’s restraint, a framework of escalatory credibility is needed, including diplomatically isolating Pakistan on platforms where it seeks legitimacy, reconsidering trade and water-sharing mechanisms, and expanding covert and intelligence-based capabilities to disrupt terrorist infrastructure across the Line of Control.

Pakistan’s Instability and the Role of Kashmir in Political and Security

• Pakistan’s internal instability, economic paralysis, political instability, and social fraying make it a platform for escalating violence.

• General Asim Munir, the current Army Chief, is reviving the doctrine of’managed escalation’, a strategy that values carefully calibrated acts of violence under the nuclear threshold.

• Munir’s rhetoric blends ideological grievance with strategic opportunism, with frequent references to Hindu-Muslim relations and a description of Kashmir as Pakistan’s “jugular vein.”

• The recent escalation in ceasefire violations across the LOC, in violation of the ceasefire agreement since February 2021, is evidence of Munir’s reckless approach.

• Each phase of internal unrest or civilmilitary imbalance in Pakistan has historically coincided with escalatory behaviour towards India, with Kashmir being the primary theatre.

• The choice of targets in Pahalgam, such as tourism, is a symbol of tentative recovery in Kashmir and an attempt to sabotage the idea of normalcy.

• The narrative that Kashmiris harbor sympathy for terrorists is both factually wrong and strategically dangerous, alienating the population essential to any durable peace.

• India’s internal response must be as resolute as its external one, expressed through sustained economic investment, political engagement, and continued efforts at social integration.

• The Pahalgam massacre serves as a reminder that ambiguity emboldens the aggressor, and the language of credible consequence must be used to constrain Pakistan’s adventurism.